News from Now On · Lab Infographic

What makes a forecast testable?

A prediction becomes useful only when tomorrow can prove it wrong.

01 · Claim

Say what will happen

One observable event—not a mood, theme, or vague direction.

02 · Probability

Commit to uncertainty

A number lets calibration improve over many forecasts.

03 · Deadline

Set the clock

Without a target date, almost any prediction can be rescued later.

04 · Resolution

Define proof in advance

Name the evidence that will count as a hit, partial, or miss.

Sources: NFNO Lab methodology